Diffusion of Military Capability

This paper discusses the enduring forces driving the global diffusion of military capability, whether during the cold war or other historical periods, and then considers the competitive dynamics characteristic of the superpower rivalry itself. I argue that the working of the so-called technological imperative along with loosely coupled action-reaction dynamics lead us to expect certain patterns in quantitative data representing arms-transfer levels over time. Concepts in time-series analysis – cointegration and error-correction – are helpful for an understanding of cold-war arms transfers, and very possibly the contemporary arms trade as well. I apply the relevant analytical tools in an effort to discern the hypothesized patterns in the empirical data. American and Russian, as well as NATO and Warsaw Pact, arms transfers are examined at three levels of regional aggregation: the Third World as a whole, the Middle East security complex, and the Persian Gulf subcomplex. There is considerable evidence that the arms-supply policies of the cold-war rivals moved together over time, both driven by the imperatives of military-technological advance as well as by their global rivalry, and that one or both sides adjusted their supply policies to correct for deviations from a moving equilibrium. This describes an action-reaction process, but a loosely coupled one deriving from the complexities of regional security dynamics and the multi-regional character of the cold war competition.